During the disruption in the Middle East, a smart move for many travellers was to secure a backup booking on an alternative carrier and route – an insurance policy in case their preferred flight was cancelled and they found themselves scrambling for options, writes Mark Trim.
With a peace deal now in place and the aviation landscape shifting, those same travellers are facing a new question: what do I do with the booking I no longer need?
The good news is that many of those backup fares are easier to cancel than travellers realise.
Because Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific restricted lower booking classes during the disruption, only top-tier inventory remained available.
These carriers do not use a branded fare model like Etihad or Qatar Airways, where restrictions are baked in at each price point.
Instead, their refundability is tied to the booking class itself.
Top-tier inventory is naturally refundable, typically with a minor or nil penalty. This means the backup fares that travellers paid a premium for during the disruption are, in many cases, the easiest fares to walk away from.
There is also no minimum notice requirement for cancellation. Unlike hotel and cruise bookings, which typically impose non-refundable conditions at 30, 14, or 7 days prior to travel, these fares carry no equivalent provision.
Travellers could hold the backup booking until a few days before departure, confirm their original flight is operating as planned, and cancel the backup then, with no additional penalty for waiting.
While some may want to wait until a signing ceremony or a prolonged period of stability, there is no benefit in waiting indefinitely.
If your original travel plans are confirmed and your backup fare is refundable, our advice is to cancel the backup and recover those funds less the cancellation costs. Holding both bookings serves little purpose once regional stability is restored.
The important first step is to check the specific conditions of your backup booking before taking any action.
Not every fare will be refundable; conditions vary by airline, booking class and when the ticket was issued.
If you are unsure, seek advice from your travel agent before cancelling, as the approach will differ depending on what you are holding.
The next question is what happens if a significant number of travellers reach the same conclusion at the same time?
Unfortunately for those hoping for a cheap flight, a flood of last-minute cancellations would not, in my view, translate into a surge of cheap cash fares.
Airlines that have spent months maximising fares have no commercial incentive to suddenly discount at the final hour.
We may see rates from the Asian carriers, almost 50% above their normal levels, come back down towards the levels of the Middle Eastern Airlines, but they are unlikely to undercut them.
The more plausible outcome is that released seats flow into the frequent-flyer and upgrade pool (reward redemptions, bid upgrades, airport upgrades) rather than appearing as bargain fares, which could give the wrong impression.
Even for those who prefer to stick to a routing via Asia, if these rates do come down from their recent highs due to a flood of cancelled backup flights, there could even be an opportunity to cancel and rebook onto the same or equivalent carrier for those who have paid significantly inflated prices.
The longer-term question is whether this episode prompts structural change.
If last-minute cancellations put a meaningful dent in projected revenue for the Asian carriers and if bookings swing back toward Middle Eastern airlines as a result, we would expect the industry to respond.
The fix is not complicated: introducing minimum notice requirements as part of a branded fare or fare family review would close this gap.
A fare purchased more than 30 days out could become non-refundable within 14 or 7 days of departure – the same logic that hotels and cruise lines apply as a matter of course.
The airlines have left a significant gap in their terms and conditions. It would not take much to address it.
The question is whether the revenue impact needs to be felt before they do.
Mark Trim founded Complex Travel Group in 2008 to simplify complex bookings and offer exceptional value to premium travellers. With more than 15 years of experience in the travel industry, Mark’s in-depth understanding of airfare pricing and market trends, coupled with his expertise in premium travel products, has driven the company’s exponential growth.
